tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-42996823176694772152011-11-27T18:16:22.290-05:00dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.comBlogger441100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-41482194976526326672010-05-22T21:14:00.001-04:002010-05-22T21:18:57.576-04:00

The following are the ten most important economic issues American government should focus on moving forward, in my opinion. Some speak directly about economics, and others, such as education and cyber-security, impact it indirectly. 1.) Adopt an energy policy centralized around alternative fuels, primarily algae biofuels, solar, and wind energy. Government subsidies and sponsorships of programs

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-25405138402208829682010-03-06T23:37:00.001-05:002010-03-06T23:38:18.715-05:00

If anyone ever doubted how irrationality can sometimes dominate market behavior, then a quick analysis of the effect on stock prices due to the threat of war can elucidate the facts. In almost every instance of the threat of war, stock prices immediately fell in dramatic fashion. Investors often feel pessimistic and distraught at the thought of mass destruction and the potential loss of lives.

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-5292878032661634292010-03-04T00:25:00.000-05:002010-03-04T00:25:11.665-05:00

Here are the things I've been focusing on the past month and will continue to focus on moving forward. 1.) Greece, Europe, and Euro: It's imperative for traders to take advantage of any perceived weakness in the U.S. stock market due to the situation in Greece. Their economy is only 1/5th the size of California's and U.S. banks have little exposure to Greek's debt. The EU has pledged to aid

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-72027601385029072522010-02-10T22:15:00.001-05:002010-02-10T22:15:44.910-05:00

Australia's unemployment rate just came in at 5.3%, better than the expected 5.6%. The AUD is up 115 points against the USD. Check this post out for information about investing in Australia.

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-58361111677784441322010-02-10T01:11:00.001-05:002010-02-10T01:16:03.734-05:00

China's GDP statistics are often viewed with a dose of skepticism. The government frequently sets targets and those targets are almost always surpassed. When the government aimed for 8% full-year GDP growth, they got 10.7%  growth. If an investor is suspicious of these numbers, is there a way to get at the real number or at least find out whether or not this number is completely off and

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-81927728174965709702010-02-07T12:36:00.000-05:002010-02-07T12:36:24.408-05:00

There will be little economic data released this upcoming week. International trade will be released on Wednesday, Retail Sales / Jobless Claims / Business Inventories on Thursday, and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Of these reports, the biggest market mover will be jobless claims since the 4week average has rose three weeks in a row, the unemployment report had conflicting signals, and the press

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-46359672027207752912010-02-05T15:39:00.000-05:002010-02-05T15:39:45.586-05:00

Today's market action has so far been extremely encouraging. As the market has rallied off its lows, I've entered into high-beta names, such as Trinity Solar (TSL) and Freeport McMoran (FCX). I've placed tight stops on these trades and look to be out in two-weeks' time. For a long-term view, I'll continue to follow the earnings and economic data. Unemployment came in at a much

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-69932771162245358742010-02-04T21:53:00.000-05:002010-02-04T21:53:46.368-05:00

Jobless claims rose 8,000 to 480k last week, pushing the 4-week moving average up for the third consecutive week after 19 straight weeks of declines. As a leading indicator into the health of the labor market, this statistic gives me a bearish sentiment. Further, stripping out personal investment in inventory in last week's GDP report takes the number to 2.2%, much less than the reported 5.7%.

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-11508967898764267482010-02-01T22:32:00.002-05:002010-02-01T22:40:49.221-05:00

From the Energy Information Administration: (Chart cut-off slightly, but data shown is relevant) Crude Oil Imports (Top 15 Countries) (Thousand Barrels per Day) CountryNov-09Oct-09YTD 2009Nov-08YTD 2008 CANADA1,9841,8581,9272,0281,949 MEXICO9511,0151,0991,2961,192 NIGERIA948853748775927 SAUDI ARABIA8379389981,4871,514 VENEZUELA8098799831,0801,040 IRAQ458499460476636 ANGOLA408437466450499

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-79671162302203393942010-01-28T17:37:00.000-05:002010-01-28T17:37:15.899-05:00

Jobless claims came in today at 470k, higher than the upper end of the consensus range. This bodes negatively for the labor market and is the second consecutive week the 4-week moving average increased. This, coupled with the lackluster durable goods order, is a worrisome signal about our economy's current rebound trajectory. Unemployment is stalled at 10% while jobless claims have stopped

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-68037040179064352842010-01-26T23:14:00.001-05:002010-01-26T23:28:12.152-05:00

Apple's strategic intent in releasing its tablet has hurt competitors in ways you may not have expected. I first recall learning about the tablet device a few months ago, after someone reported seeing truckloads of books being unloaded at Apple's offices. As more information "leaked" about the tablet device, Apple benefited by forcing consumers to wait for their new product release instead of

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-16458564677710026552010-01-26T22:36:00.000-05:002010-01-26T22:36:08.542-05:00

Apple unveils its tablet device New Homes Sales - 10:00AM FOMC Announcement  2:15PM- Interest rates are expected to remain the same Notre Dame at Villanova (3)  7:00PM - ESPN - College Basketball :) President's State of the Union Address 9:00PM - Follow his discussion on the budget deficit

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-31951959651509774472010-01-25T22:00:00.000-05:002010-01-25T22:00:43.417-05:00

If uncertainty and volatility are to decrease in the financial markets, it's imperative for Bernanke to be reappointed as Fed Chairman. Bernanke has performed well in the midst of the "Great Recession", although the long-term ramifications of his policies have yet to be realized. The stock market is in love with his policy of low-interest rates, fueling the economy with cheap borrowing. Over the

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-24904675808930932672010-01-24T20:56:00.000-05:002010-01-24T20:56:38.505-05:00

A slew of economic data will be released this week - Existing Home Sales on Monday, Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Fed meeting on Wednesday, Durable Goods Orders / Jobless Claims on Thursday, and GDP / Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Whereas last week the earnings reports moved the markets, this week the economic data will assuredly be the driving force. Now is definitely a time to be on your

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-62379092167237656632010-01-21T21:04:00.000-05:002010-01-21T21:04:47.734-05:00

From thewhitehouse.gov: The proposal would: 1.   Limit the Scope - The President and his economic team will work with Congress to ensure that no bank or financial institution that contains a bank will own, invest in or sponsor a hedge fund or a private equity fund, or proprietary trading operations unrelated to serving customers for its own profit. 2.   Limit the Size - The President also

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-52651497460117148192010-01-21T13:20:00.000-05:002010-01-21T13:20:38.926-05:00

The past two days in the stock market have been marked by volatility and uneasiness. The VIX is up 16% as I write this and the Dow is down more than 200 points. For those of you who have followed some of my previous posts, I often comment on the jobless claims number. Today, the number came in at 482k, easily surpassing the upper end of the consensus range and pointing to a halt in the

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-13593934643890869762010-01-19T23:27:00.000-05:002010-01-19T23:27:16.860-05:00

The Euro just hit a 4-month low against the USD on Greece's debt concerns. It looks like it can drop further. Here's the article from Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTlPpu2CgJsg&pos=2 Recall that on Dec. 8, Fitch downgraded Greece's debt on concerns about an uncontrollable budget deficit. Greece has the 33rd largest GDP in the world. Here's a chart of the EUR/USD

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-1429677758589291302010-01-19T17:55:00.000-05:002010-01-19T17:55:00.837-05:00

Here are some useful sources that I check frequently in order to grasp an understanding of what's going on in the markets. Flow of Funds Report - The most undervalued report on economics http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf Federal Reserve of San Francisco Research - Most undervalued website on economics: Provides amazing research. http://www.frbsf.org/ Global Economic

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-34990157607527694162010-01-18T21:53:00.001-05:002010-01-18T22:58:25.246-05:00

This shortened 4-day trading week will be sure to pack as much volatility and volume as a 5-day week. For economic news, we have the Bank of Canada rate statement tomorrow morning, U.S. PPI and Housing Starts Wednesday, and Jobless Claims / Philly Fed Survey on Friday. However, the real focus this week will be on the slew of earnings reports. The following companies report earnings this week.

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-38663842963070459352010-01-15T17:09:00.001-05:002010-01-15T19:04:56.842-05:00

Last night I attended a value investment seminar sponsored by our School of Business here at Villanova. Here were some things I picked up on investing from our speaker: 1.) Look for small-cap companies that are unfavored and have little/no analyst coverage. These companies often have wide discrepancies between their stock price and intrinsic value. 2.) Look for companies with significant

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-2817996216695889632010-01-15T11:57:00.000-05:002010-01-15T11:57:04.010-05:00

I just sold my GBP/USD position for a 105 pip profit. I believe there is more downside in this currency pair in the coming week but I exited mainly because of the oversold conditions of the shorter time-frame charts. I'm expecting a fairly substantial bounce from my selling point and I may consider re-entering sometime early next week. Here's a 15 minute chart.

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-34229373148298420952010-01-14T13:03:00.002-05:002010-01-14T14:35:28.222-05:00

I recently established a short GBP / long USD position, mostly based on technical analysis indicators. The MACD indicators in the GBP/USD are overbought on the 4hr, 2hr, and 15 minute charts. Further, the chart is right at the neckline on a head & shoulders pattern on the daily chart. The blue line on the chart below represents my entry point, and coincidently, is the neckline of the head and

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-90102979458978194572010-01-13T20:03:00.000-05:002010-01-13T20:03:28.946-05:00

Tomorrow I'll be focusing on Retail Sales and Jobless Claims. Retail Sales are estimated to come in at .4% MoM growth after a 1.3% surge in November. New motor vehicle sales and rising gasoline prices lead me to believe this .4% number will be beat tomorrow. On the jobless claims side, the consensus estimate is at 437k. Expect the 4-week moving average to continue its downward descent, which

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-80386085256734541642010-01-12T23:37:00.002-05:002010-01-12T23:42:06.440-05:00

I was playing around with a financial calculator tonight and wanted to shed some light on some pretty neat results about compounding and investing. A $10,000 investment with a 15% rate of return will grow to $40,455 in 10 years.  If held for 20 years, that $10,000 would grow to $163,665. If held for 50 years, that $10,000 would grow to $10,836,574. Now here's the cool part. If you can earn

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-33624193087601972802010-01-12T18:24:00.000-05:002010-01-12T18:24:02.126-05:00

The Sharpe Ratio is a measure of excess return over risk. In a portfolio context, excess return is equal to the return on the portfolio minus the risk-free rate. Risk is measured as the standard deviation of those returns. Thus, the formula is ( Rp - Rf ) / SD, where Rp = return on the portfolio, Rf = risk-free rate, and SD = standard deviation. The risk-free rate is generally the rate on 10-year

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-38696943433835382072010-01-12T14:50:00.000-05:002010-01-12T14:50:48.978-05:00

Hey everyone, I just put up an RSS feeder icon that's located on the right-hand side of the website. The icon is the orange square. By subscribing to my feed, you can organize all my posts into a reader and pick and choose which ones you want to read in a customizable, easy-to-use format. -dg

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-63550428839712795392010-01-11T19:51:00.003-05:002010-01-11T19:58:19.262-05:00

This post will outline, in-depth, how you can make money shorting two inverse, levered ETFs. I also propose that left unchanged, institutions that issue these ETFs will come under close scrutiny because of an inherent flaw in the compounding mathematics behind which these ETFs track an index. I can almost guarantee that those of you who read through this whole post will understand ETFs on a much

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-57130805105629684682010-01-11T12:20:00.006-05:002010-01-11T12:26:39.923-05:00

According to Science Daily, confirmation bias is "a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions." This is a dangerous trap to fall into while trading or investing. When considering an investment or even trying to justify an already-made investment, people often try to seek the opinions and data that confirm their investment thesis. For instance,

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-57479934493576957912010-01-10T20:17:00.000-05:002010-01-10T20:17:27.735-05:00

Here are some interesting statistics from The Economist's "Pocket World in Figures". China is the largest producer of meat, vegetables, fruit, cereals, wheat, rice, tea, lead, zinc, aluminum, coal, cotton, and oil in the world. It leads the world in agricultural output, with twice that of India's. It is the 4th largest producer of sugar, rubber, and gold. It is the 2nd largest producer of

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-8247373704388613702010-01-10T19:31:00.001-05:002010-01-10T19:33:06.921-05:00

This upcoming week doesn't have too many economic or earnings releases, so the market may move on some spurious developments as the week progresses. For economic releases, International Trade comes out on Tuesday, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims on Thursday, and CPI, Industrial Production, and Consumer Sentiment come out on Friday. For a great economic calendar with upcoming economic releases,

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-31244975840055422912010-01-09T12:41:00.000-05:002010-01-09T12:41:57.360-05:00

Australia is becoming an increasingly attractive investment. Their economy has been boosted in part through rising commodity prices, allowing Australia to reap higher export earnings through shipments of iron ore, coal, and gold. Their economy was hardly impacted by the credit crisis and the Reserve Bank of Australia was one of the first major central banks to raise interest rates, which

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-57535414312619845722010-01-08T18:54:00.002-05:002010-01-08T23:49:03.590-05:00

In Glen Arnold's book, The Financial Times Guide to Value Investing: How to Become a Disciplined Investor (2nd Edition), Arnold discusses how failing unconventionally on Wall Street can cause you to lose your job while the consequences of failing conventionally are minimal. As he put it, "No one will fire you for buying IBM." You get into trouble when you lose money going against the crowd and

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-22829608507306366982010-01-08T10:56:00.002-05:002010-01-08T11:27:38.477-05:00

Today's unemployment report showed the unemployment rate came in at 10.0% for the month of December, unchanged from last month. This report contained a mix of good and bad news. On the bad side, nonfarm payrolls fell 85,000, which was outside the low end of the consensus range, suggesting a pretty big miss. This was largely due to an unexpected decline in government nonfarm payrolls of 21,000.

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-43289362509359330642010-01-07T19:36:00.000-05:002010-01-07T19:36:34.740-05:00

It's interesting that the rule, "Never lose money" is so often repeated by Buffet. It's obvious to everyone that the point of investing is to make money, so why does this quote appear in all forms of investment media? The quote's wisdom lies in the law of percentage changes in stock prices. Very simply, if your portfolio goes from $100 to $50, you have a 50% loss. In order to recuperate this

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-89078745637851312482010-01-07T10:52:00.000-05:002010-01-07T10:52:25.335-05:00

Ben Graham's style of investing focused on a company's net current assets, or current assets - total liabilities. If the total market cap is less than net current assets, you may have a potential bargain because it signifies that the company's ongoing business is selling for nothing. I sometimes view net current assets as a company's minimum liquidation value because it subtracts out all debts

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-13940088786389504582010-01-07T10:04:00.001-05:002010-01-07T10:05:18.709-05:00

Jobless claims came in at the lower end of the consensus range, at 434,000. This is a very encouraging sign that the labor market is improving. In fact, it is the 18th consecutive week in which the 4-week moving average has fallen. I've read 2 articles so far that claim the market is down today because of this number, which is strikingly incorrect. This was an encouraging number and I'd argue the

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-8313749526662117162010-01-06T23:09:00.000-05:002010-01-06T23:09:07.757-05:00

Tomorrow I'll be focusing on the jobless claims number that comes out at 8:30AM. Jobless claims are the number of people who file for unemployment insurance for the first time. It's often viewed as a leading indicator and an improving trend in the statistic usually translates into an improvement in the unemployment number, which is next released this Friday. Lately, the jobless claims number has

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-35633736850191590402010-01-06T13:18:00.000-05:002010-01-06T13:18:02.422-05:00

Throughout most of the credit-crisis, the value of the U.S. dollar and the U.S. stock market had a very strong, negative correlation. When the U.S. stock market went down (up), investors would flee to the safe-haven greenback and the value of the USD would rise (fall). This correlation became extremely tight with each passing day, but recent Fed announcements and better-than-expected improvement

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-27082093197759392212010-01-05T21:47:00.000-05:002010-01-05T21:56:04.314-05:00

1.) The Baltic Dry Index The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an index that measures the daily average price of shipping raw materials by sea. The index indirectly measures the supply and demand for commodities such as coal, grain, and building materials. Since it takes years to build a ship, the supply of ships at any point in time is fixed and only through a change in prices can the market reach

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-88612903642143948452010-01-05T15:49:00.000-05:002010-01-05T15:49:22.425-05:00

By tying the value of the Chinese Yuan to the U.S. Dollar, China is driving asset inflation in their own country and allowing  the U.S. to dodge it. As the value of the USD weakens, which it has since 2001, so too does the value of the Chinese Yuan relative to other currencies. So for instance, as the euro strengthens against the USD and the yuan, Europeans begin buying cheaper assets abroad.

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-31277591213912090632010-01-05T12:24:00.000-05:002010-01-05T12:24:41.119-05:00

I've always been an avid reader and this winter break I've had the opportunity to catch up on some reading on finance, economics, and investing. I believe the absolute best thing one can do to be successful in this industry is to read, read, and read. Absorb as much information as possible, be curious, and discuss what you read with colleagues, friends, professors, and frankly anyone. In order

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-40056662987264692542010-01-04T23:09:00.000-05:002010-01-04T23:33:05.014-05:00

When it comes to stock investing, I believe the surest way to prosperity is through a long-term focus on value investing. The power of compounding is simply amazing and the greatest way to exploit this is through holding long-term stocks that, in Buffet's words, have a "durable competitive advantage".However, I am not completely convinced on the value-investing approach and read extensively on

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-63571140904506049532010-01-04T22:49:00.000-05:002010-01-04T23:03:28.378-05:00

Global Macro is a style of investment and asset management, whereby managers have the flexibility to invest in any asset class (commodities, stock, bonds, real estate, forex, etc.), in any market in the world (US, Canada, China, Australia, Nigeria, etc.), using any financial instrument (options, futures, swaps, etc.).My affinity for the Global Macro style of investing stems from, first and

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4299682317669477215.post-23255250307787796152010-01-04T22:42:00.000-05:002010-01-04T22:47:45.749-05:00

Hey everyone,My name is Derek and I'm currently a student at Villanova University majoring in Finance and Economics. The purposes of this blog are to lay out ideas on finance, economics, and investing and hopefully promote an engaging discussion about these topics with you guys. I've been investing for over three years now in the stock market and for about 6 months in the FOREX market. I follow

dghttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09322315115602184336noreply@blogger.com0