Thursday, January 7, 2010
Jobless Claims Analysis
Jobless claims came in at the lower end of the consensus range, at 434,000. This is a very encouraging sign that the labor market is improving. In fact, it is the 18th consecutive week in which the 4-week moving average has fallen. I've read 2 articles so far that claim the market is down today because of this number, which is strikingly incorrect. This was an encouraging number and I'd argue the market is down due to other reasons, such as the overnight stock market movement in the overseas market.
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I can't understand why people point to encouraging numbers, such as this, for any downside to the markets. It makes no sense to me. If you look at it from an economist perspective, it means less people are filing for unemployment benefits. This is a good sign (although not great) that the economy is moving out of a recession. I like the way you think.
ReplyDeleteDavie (Mr. Winky) ;)
Reporters are probably trying to make news out of nothing. A more accurate article would have been how a lackluster day of trading is expected in anticipation for tomorrow's job's report.
ReplyDeleteThis improving trend in jobless claims should bode well for the number tomorrow, though other factors will come into play. I'd speculate the number to come in at 9.9% and I'd be surprised were to come in at 10.1%.