Jobless Claims - Stock Market Focus for Tomorrow

Tomorrow I'll be focusing on the jobless claims number that comes out at 8:30AM. Jobless claims are the number of people who file for unemployment insurance for the first time. It's often viewed as a leading indicator and an improving trend in the statistic usually translates into an improvement in the unemployment number, which is next released this Friday.

Lately, the jobless claims number has been better than expected. The 4-week moving average has dropped considerably from its peak, as the chart below shows. The consensus estimate for tomorrow is 450,000 claims with a range of 420,000-470,000. Although the number tomorrow won't have any impact on Friday's jobs numbers, the continuing improvement in the claims leads me to believe the unemployment number will come in at the low end of the range, at 9.9%. The jobless claims number surprisingly doesn't have too much of an impact on market movement but it provides an invaluable insight into the condition of the labor market and can give you an edge in your trading.

The above image was taken from http://fidweek.econoday.com/.